Parafod Escape Project

[BioLogIn]

Hi all.

I decided to start a thread dedicated to escaping paraFoD, seeing how even strong players (including myself =)) manage to fail it from time to time, even when they could 100% escape it.

While I understand that the subject may be too vague and too broad to completely analyze it, I suggest that we start with some specific positions. It will never hurt to improve understanding of the game, right?

And yes, of course we're talking about parafc maladroit.

[BioLogIn]

First position I'd like to discuss is this specific one:

xxxx-
xxxxW

PSDFP
xxFFF

Somehow FFF player managed to successfully land a charm (usually this implies he already had a monster, because otherwise PSFW would be usually better; but let's assume there are no monsters involved and both players are above 10hp) and can para opponent's hand into '-'.

Opponent showed W in non-charmed hand (to block DFFDD) and is facing obvious FoD. How should he defend from this position?

If defendant tries to counter, position moves to:

x---
xWWS
or
x---
xWPP

versus

FPWP
FFFF

and things are grim for defendant with only 1 50-50 that heavily favors FoD player (possibility to move to FSSDD).

However, defendant doesn't really need counter here. Moving into S makes FoD-player to cast para at nobody (or eat SPFP), while defendant can switch to SWD and thus have slightly better options:

x---
xWSW

FPWP
FFFF

So, if anyone is up to share his\her thoughts on this position and\or correct me and\or finish analysis of this position - it will be very good for the start =)

Please share you thoughts
Bio

[mikeEB]

If you're sure they will para you instead of nobody on turn charm+2, you can just go for a standard para escape:

PWPFSS
FFFFFF

---SPF
WFFFFF

or

----DP
WFFFFF

which does much better than 50-50 if you call it correctly, while still managing a 50-50 if you do not:

EDIT:analysis of 'do not' case was flawed; working out a new line of play.

[BioLogIn]

mike
they'll para at nobody on that turn if they see S in the other hand - to prevent SPFP frpom resolving. they don't have to cast para at nobody if you show F, quite contrary, seeing F they will para your other hand at least until your para resolves.

[saypin]

well, rare but sometimes useful variant - PWPFSSSD
FFFFWWSD

[BioLogIn]

Saypin
what was that about? we're not talking about alternate FoD weaves here...

---

Another interesting position I'd like to mention here is

FFF
xPW

versus

WPP
xWW

Wrong defense would offer only one 'true' 50-50:

WPPSD
xWWPP

But consider WWS:

WPPSD
xWWSP

which means double 50\50 - first is charm\para junction, and the second one is kinda hidden, so a beginner FoD player may even not spot it:

FFFFFF
xPWPFS

WPPSDF
xWWSPP

Obvious invis makes FoD player to cast para the defendant... but this may be FoD player's undoing, because of timestop mechanic:

FFFFFFF F
xPWPFSS S

WPPSDFCDD
xWWSPPCDP

whoops, one hand is paralyzed into D, but the other dispels FoD successfully.

[saypin]

Apr 1, 2009 10:21:22 GMT -5 BioLogIn said:

Saypin
what was that about? we're not talking about alternate FoD weaves here...

It is a FoD with an antispell block

another timestop/dispel variant
P W P F S S S D
F F F F F F F F
P S F F F C D P/D W
W W S P P C D P/D W

[salvor]

As I understand it isn`t fool-proof defense
It`s just 2 50/50s- if you won`t be paralized on 6th(turn of clap) turn, para will broke your dispell, and if you want to defend yourself from paraFoD in PS/WW vs PW/FF position, you can make better defence(4 50/50s):

PSWDSF
WWSWDPP 

P.S.And there are some lines here

[mikeEB]

Jun 6, 2009 15:19:42 GMT -5 salvor said:

As

PSWDSF
WWSWDPP 

That isn't 4 clean 50-50s. For example, if you either self-fear on turn 4, you die; if you get paralyzed on turn 4 without landing the fear you cannot land either the next fear or the amnesia and end up with only one more 50-50.

[salvor]

Yes,it`s a bit vulnerable to targetting nobody.Then I`ll try to find the rescue chance in this defence
If you will be paralyzed on 4th turn you have only one escape-chance(DSF on 6th turn)/
If disruptions bounce 4th turn and you are paralyzed on 5th you will die/
So if disruption bounce in 5th turn decision-point looks like this(0-rescue 1-dying 0.25- 25% chance of dying)

Att\Def	Self	None	Opp
Self	0	0.0	0.25
None	0.5	0.25	0
Opp	0.25	1	0

So if disruption bounce in 4th turn,in 5th turn PS/WW-player has 7/44 chance of escape(a bit better than 2 50/50s)
Decision point in 4th turn gives us

Att\Def	Self	None	Opp
Self	0	0.0	7/44
None	0.5	7/44	0
Opp	7/44	1	0

And result is 11.4% chance of dying, it`s a bit better than 3 50/50s but not much.
(If probability of dying is x, total chance of rescue equals (x*(1-x)/(0.5-x)+1)/(1+2(1-x)/0.5-x)+1/x) )

Maybe made a mistake in math, I`ll recalculate it tomorrow,maybe.

[Daneel]

How about this position?

xP
FF

vs.

PP
xD

What is the best defence in this case?

[biologin001]

Some fast and hasty thoughts here. Haven't really analysed it properly, so there ought to be errors. But still...

LH:S is somehow implied here, since P and F and D do nothing here. The only other option is LH W, but it does nothing with FOD as well (yet, protects from opponent going for PS, but RH will give you enough protection anyway).

RH W seems to be the "safe play" here. It gives you a WPP to counter an ogre if opponent goes for it, and you'll face the parafod you can either cast blindness (if opponent para's your LH):

xPWPFx
FFFFFF

vs.

PPSDDD
xDWFFD


or have a good survival rate:


xPWPFx
FFFFFF

vs.

PPSDx
xDWPP


There are some problems with this approach, though. First route leaves a window where FoD player will abandon it for WPFD, trading 3hp for blindness with equally bad spellflow. The second approach, while leaving a defender in a better position, doesn't guarantee 100% defence.

Defender has a few other options though. RH can do P or S (as F and D are meaningless here).
S is kinda weak here, since they'll likely to para RH for one less 50-50 and worse position (for defender).
But RH:P seems to look ok here, giving you additional 50-50 on DPP (Note, there is little sense in faking it for DPS here)


xPWP
FFFF

vs.

PPSD
xDPP

Here either they are amnesia'd into WPP/FFF, or you have your hands free for charm\invis\maladroit fakeouts.

Note, that while S/P here doesn't guarantee 100% defence from FoD or ogre, it'll still get the defender good rate of avoiding all threats without losing the tempo, thus D/P _looks_ better here. But again, without proper analysis of all 50-50 it is hard to tell. Maybe I'll do that later, or, at least, I'll try to.

[toyotami]

I couldnt keep up with the discussion but going back to the original question, so im going to cheat and go back to the original scenario.

i wonder what the win loss ratio is of not gesturing W after the charm.

When i play paramen i tend to safeguard against fod at the expense of ogres and lightning bolts. On a play to outcome basis, when charmed against an f line, gesture S...

its a sucky position against an ogre and nobody likes to eat lightning bolts but i think you have at least 50% shot of getting back into the game? Especially as alot of last ditch fod escapes result in the next turn being a loss vs eat fireball coin toss.


S vs W as a defensive stroke doesn't just stand for having a null *charmed* gesture...generally, having only W and P in any turn where you don& t have significant board position or endgame scenario is an invitation to fod...but i dont have the wherewithall to back this up as im deep...DEEP into my cups.

[salvor]

Apr 1, 2009 10:21:22 GMT -5 BioLogIn said:

Another interesting position I'd like to mention here is

FFF
xPW

versus

WPP
xWW

And to tell more about this position, I`ve just found that this position was described here, so you should make

WPPFFFFF
xWWSPPFD

On 5th turn FoDer must paralyze your right hand and on 6th and 7th turn you have 2 50/50s.IF you are not paralyzed on timestop turn, It allows you to mirror FoD, so totally this defence gives you 3 50/50s instead of 2 50/50 provide by WPPSDF/XWWSPP-defence.

[salvor]

I will write one more useful FoD-defence which I use a lot.

SWDWFFD
XPDWPPD

If your left hand is paralysed instead, you cast blindness by your RH. This position (SW/XP vs FF/PX) happens a lot in midgame and is playable in openings (If you play SW/XP, you have an advantage over FF/PS, see slarty.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=warlocks&action=display&thread=421&page=1 ).

If you play SW/WP, SW/PP, SW/DP, you're golden vs FF/PS and FF/PW. You may have some troubles with FF/PP, though (I don't know who has the upper hand in FF/PP vs SW/XP).