Post by salvor on Nov 30, 2013 5:28:49 GMT -5
slarty.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=warlocks&action=display&thread=291
slarty.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=warlocks&action=display&thread=40&page=1
This is the third incarnation of this thread, though I am looking on a theoretical aspect of the issue.
From a pure mathematical standpoint, Warlocks is a sequence of iterative decision points, and there exist an "ideal" "best" strategy which is a probability distribution on each turn (there may not be the single move, but there always is a combination of moves, say 80% counter monster and 20% counter self). In a battle when two players use this "ideal" strategy there is no place for "style".
Information changes things slightly, but not much. If you happen to know a probability distribution of your opponent (say he wrote "I open D/P in 50% and F/P in 50%" and he actually coinflip in each opening), then there is a SINGLE "best" move (not a mix of moves, but a single one). Again, there is no place for style.
Style appears when we realyze that we are humans, not chess programs. We tend to misevaluate moves and judge it differently. Waving Hands is wonderful game, and sometimes (DP/WW vs DP/PS is a best example) each player has a ton of options, but an "ideal" move is a combination of only two or three of them. Different players evaluate these moves differently, and here comes the "style".
I encounter such situation in my early Warlock carrear when I used to play SW/DP vs D/P(it was played just like D/W, two disruption give you soft control on major decision point on the third turn).
Here, if we simplify that decision point for D/P-player, he has two "major" options: DSF(s)/PSD and DSF(o)/PSD. S/D-player instead has three: SWW/DPP(o), SWW/DPP(shield), SWW/DPS. From mathematical point, in such decision point one of options of S/D-player is worse than (some) combination of other two. But which one? It is not that easy to figure. You can find that one (SWW/DPP(o)) of three is not a bad one, but it's hard to find which one of the others is bad. I think that SWW/DPP(shield), but I am never sure.
DP/PS vs DP/WW juncture is another example. Tens of options, and I still do not know which move form the best mix-up.
Another point which influence the "style" is a skill-gap between players. If your chance to win from equal position is beter/worse than 50%, your decisions may be influenced by it. Typically, if you are stronger than opponent you shall prefer "safe" lines and vice versa. Such versatility is also part of a player "style". As an exapmple, I have a bad habit of playing the "optimal" move (move which I consider to be optimal) vs relatively weak players. This significantly lowers my winrate against them.
In this post I wanted to list number of such decisions where different players choose different options quite often.
Micromoments
1.Openings
The most classical example of thing where "style" matters.
D/P, F/S, S/P, F/P, S/W, D/W, S/D, F/W, S/S, P/W
10 different playable options, this may be a record.
2.Succat's (in previous post) example of DFFF/DFFD/DFFP will be our second, though it is not the best one. Quite often, the best play is a combination of all three, so here players differ only in percentages, which is not much.
3.F/P juncture is second one. It has three major branches, FF/PS, FF/PW, FF/PP, and if your opponent has only two answers (as he often has), one is inferior to others. But which one?
4.Goblin or fear? Fear preserves the initiative, goblin banks your initiative for later.
5. DP/PS vs WW/PP-loop.
One of my favourite positions. Literally, a ton of options.
6. ParaFoD.
PWPS/PWPW/PWPF.
Different players have different preferences here. Some are evil and go for FoD even if defender has 3+ 50/50s, some are conservative and use it only if it is 33% or more death-chance. Decision point also hardens, because there are two different fakes (PWPS and PWPW).
7.Invisibility
Also a place of style. Two undisruptable hands, tons of options.
8. Antispell. Situation depends on your other hand
On your RH you have possibility of bolt or blindness. If you go through blindness, you will also have some upcoming decision points.
You can switch to double charm or summon an ogre. Or do something crafty with permanency.
Macromoments
1. Suppose you have an equal position wih your opponent, but have a possibility of 50% FoD, but you suffer 5 damage if you fail (say if your opponent has an ogre).
Will you go for it, or not? Such do_or_die scenarios is particularly common in S/P vs D/P. Mathematically, in this position you should go for FoD. Note that players are unlikely to go hard way if they play vs a considerably weaker players.
2.How many decision points do you force?
If you play paraline, or summon a goblin, you can force a long sequence of (small) decision points (targetting para and shielding/charmin a gobbo). This style-point also depends on the skill cap between players, if you feal to have an upper hand, you will try to play tighter than optimal.
What other scenarious of such type do you know?
slarty.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=warlocks&action=display&thread=40&page=1
This is the third incarnation of this thread, though I am looking on a theoretical aspect of the issue.
From a pure mathematical standpoint, Warlocks is a sequence of iterative decision points, and there exist an "ideal" "best" strategy which is a probability distribution on each turn (there may not be the single move, but there always is a combination of moves, say 80% counter monster and 20% counter self). In a battle when two players use this "ideal" strategy there is no place for "style".
Information changes things slightly, but not much. If you happen to know a probability distribution of your opponent (say he wrote "I open D/P in 50% and F/P in 50%" and he actually coinflip in each opening), then there is a SINGLE "best" move (not a mix of moves, but a single one). Again, there is no place for style.
Style appears when we realyze that we are humans, not chess programs. We tend to misevaluate moves and judge it differently. Waving Hands is wonderful game, and sometimes (DP/WW vs DP/PS is a best example) each player has a ton of options, but an "ideal" move is a combination of only two or three of them. Different players evaluate these moves differently, and here comes the "style".
I encounter such situation in my early Warlock carrear when I used to play SW/DP vs D/P(it was played just like D/W, two disruption give you soft control on major decision point on the third turn).
DS
PS
SW
DP
Here, if we simplify that decision point for D/P-player, he has two "major" options: DSF(s)/PSD and DSF(o)/PSD. S/D-player instead has three: SWW/DPP(o), SWW/DPP(shield), SWW/DPS. From mathematical point, in such decision point one of options of S/D-player is worse than (some) combination of other two. But which one? It is not that easy to figure. You can find that one (SWW/DPP(o)) of three is not a bad one, but it's hard to find which one of the others is bad. I think that SWW/DPP(shield), but I am never sure.
DP/PS vs DP/WW juncture is another example. Tens of options, and I still do not know which move form the best mix-up.
Another point which influence the "style" is a skill-gap between players. If your chance to win from equal position is beter/worse than 50%, your decisions may be influenced by it. Typically, if you are stronger than opponent you shall prefer "safe" lines and vice versa. Such versatility is also part of a player "style". As an exapmple, I have a bad habit of playing the "optimal" move (move which I consider to be optimal) vs relatively weak players. This significantly lowers my winrate against them.
In this post I wanted to list number of such decisions where different players choose different options quite often.
Micromoments
1.Openings
The most classical example of thing where "style" matters.
D/P, F/S, S/P, F/P, S/W, D/W, S/D, F/W, S/S, P/W
10 different playable options, this may be a record.
2.Succat's (in previous post) example of DFFF/DFFD/DFFP will be our second, though it is not the best one. Quite often, the best play is a combination of all three, so here players differ only in percentages, which is not much.
3.F/P juncture is second one. It has three major branches, FF/PS, FF/PW, FF/PP, and if your opponent has only two answers (as he often has), one is inferior to others. But which one?
4.Goblin or fear? Fear preserves the initiative, goblin banks your initiative for later.
5. DP/PS vs WW/PP-loop.
DP
PS
WW
PP
One of my favourite positions. Literally, a ton of options.
6. ParaFoD.
PWPS/PWPW/PWPF.
Different players have different preferences here. Some are evil and go for FoD even if defender has 3+ 50/50s, some are conservative and use it only if it is 33% or more death-chance. Decision point also hardens, because there are two different fakes (PWPS and PWPW).
7.Invisibility
Also a place of style. Two undisruptable hands, tons of options.
8. Antispell. Situation depends on your other hand
SPFP
XDF(W/F)
On your RH you have possibility of bolt or blindness. If you go through blindness, you will also have some upcoming decision points.
SPFP
XXPS
You can switch to double charm or summon an ogre. Or do something crafty with permanency.
Macromoments
1. Suppose you have an equal position wih your opponent, but have a possibility of 50% FoD, but you suffer 5 damage if you fail (say if your opponent has an ogre).
Will you go for it, or not? Such do_or_die scenarios is particularly common in S/P vs D/P. Mathematically, in this position you should go for FoD. Note that players are unlikely to go hard way if they play vs a considerably weaker players.
2.How many decision points do you force?
If you play paraline, or summon a goblin, you can force a long sequence of (small) decision points (targetting para and shielding/charmin a gobbo). This style-point also depends on the skill cap between players, if you feal to have an upper hand, you will try to play tighter than optimal.
What other scenarious of such type do you know?