Surviving the endgame

[awall]

There's already a thread about general strategy for endgame. However, I just finished playing a game whose last 10 turns or so seem to defy the lessons in the other thread. I'm interested to know whether this was because I was a very lucky guesser, or whether there was something else about this game that caused it to play out this way.

Opponent:
Turn:012345678901234567890123456789012345
--LH:BSWDSFWPS?DPPPSDDCDPWP FFF>>>WWPSD F
--RH:BWWWSPPFD?PWWSWDDCPSDF WWPFDFWPSDF F
Me:
Turn:012345678901234567890123456789012345
--LH:BPSDPSFWP PSDSFFWSFSSDD-WDDPPWPWWCDP
--RH:BDSFWWFFF FFFDPPWSPPFDPPSDDSFWWPSCDP

Opponent was maladroit on turn 29.
Opponent's Magic Missile on turn 32 targeted me (deflected by shield), on turn 33 targeted my goblin (and hit it).
I submitted P/P on turn 35, figuring that I'd rather ensure Dispel Magic and risk surrender than allow Charm to hit on turn 35 and risk death.


Due to a mistake earlier, I wound up several life behind, and the wounds on turn 27 knocked me down to 1 health while my opponent had 6. This situation should have spelled doom for me in short order; instead, I managed to survive for 8 more turns, during which no WFP's or WPFD's were attempted. Furthermore, I managed to get off Haste on turn 33, which is probably the hardest spell to successfully cast in the game. I wound up being charmed into an accidental surrender because I guessed wrong on the last turn, but if that hadn't happened I feel that I was on the verge of turning the game around. That shouldn't have been possible given my position on turn 27.

So my question is, what should my opponent have done? At first analysis, it appears that his twin charms kept him too busy to stop my Haste. I think the better play on turn 30 would have been F/P; I would have been forced to counterspell myself on turn 31 for fear of WFP, which would have prevented me from going for protection, which would have put me back in the "have to shield every turn so I don't get killed by a stray stab" mentality, which would have kept me from getting off Haste or any other form of counter attack.

It seems the lesson to learn from this is that going for disruptions against a low health opponent generally aren't worth it. He can afford to be hit with mindspells, but he has to take every threat against his HP seriously, and eventually one will slip through. Does this seem correct, or am I totally missing the point?

[Slartucker]

games.ravenblack.net/warlocks?num=56679&turn=35

When I was talking about WFP and WPFD, I was mainly thinking of balanced endgames. When one player is at 6 health and the other player is at 1, the situation is very different, because the 6 health player can afford to eat wounds or disruptions, especially if they allow him to get just one WFP off. The 1 health player is much more constricted, and even has to keep an eye out for stabs.

You did guess well and it kept you alive, but you never gained any real advantage -- you lost your goblin, and Haste under double charm is of questionable value even when you're not at 1 health.

Toyotami sort of let you drag things out, maybe because he got distracted by your goblin. I mean, I've never seen anyone cast Haste at 1 health before. That's a novelty to say the least. Toyo basically decided the health advantage would make it easy for him to defend your attacks (by threatening death on you) and took a cautious approach, using P and WWP against the goblin and then setting up twin charms, presumably since they also allow him missiles to use against the goblin and to threaten your own life with.

The WFP you suggest is less cautious. That path would have a good chance of punching through your defenses at some point, but Toyo would be eating damage from the goblin in the meanwhile, so if it didn't end up working, he would be in unnecessary trouble.

[awall]

I certainly wasn't expecting to get Haste off either. I wasn't even thinking about it until I gestured PWP, realized I didn't need the counterspell, and realized that going back to W could get me either a WWS counterspell or haste. Perhaps I overestimated the utility of haste, but it seems like if I'd guessed correctly and avoided surrendering, I could have gotten out of the pickle I was in. Let's say I'd submitted F/F on turn 35 and one of those had gotten charmed to P.

Him:
345678
D F ?
F F ?
Me:
345678
CDFFD?
CDPWP?

Unless he shields or completes DFW on turn 37, then on turn 38 I do D/> and he dies. If I can't kill him by stabbing, I do D/F. At worst, he does W/D or P/D on turn 37 and we both kill each other on turn 39.

Maybe WFP would have led to eating damage, but assuming my above analysis is correct, the play he did was by no means the "safe" play.

[Slartucker]

Toyotami had no business charming you to a P. That was ridiculous, and very risky with Haste going. Of course he also had no business letting haste go off in the first place, either.

Also NB that in the example you give, you actually complete Dispel Magic on turn 36, which kills your haste.

[awall]

Oh right, Dispelling his Charm would have also taken out my Haste. So much for that plan.

Actually, as long as we're on this topic, if I'd completed WWS on turn 36, would that have canceled the Charm from turn 35? I'd assume that it shouldn't, as counterspell is only supposed to stop things as they're being cast. I figured I'd need Remove Enchantment, Dispel Magic, or another mindspell to cancel the charm, and I decided to go with Dispel because I wanted the shield on 35 (as I said above, I'd forgotten that it would have also cancelled haste). Maybe CSWDDC/CSP>PC would have been better.

Or whatever. It's a moot point now, and the game really shouldn't have come to that anyway. You're right that I shouldn't have had the opportunity to get Haste off at 1 life.

[Slartucker]

Typically the way to deal with mindspells a turn or two after you get Haste off is with your own mindspell. Charm and para have no effect during the hasted turn, so if they are cast during the regular turn and you time it correctly, you can cancel them easily. Here for example

D F
F F

CFFF
CF-

allows you to block the charm -- and if he doesn't cast it for some reason, you know that first and don't end up para'd.

Clarification: if your opponent was hasted they would have an effect. They only have an effect if their caster submits gestures. This has some very esoteric implications - for example, if you hit a monster with para and it is protected by magic mirror, you will be paralyzed but it will have no effect on you.