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Fakers
Jul 24, 2007 11:11:14 GMT -5
Post by toyotami on Jul 24, 2007 11:11:14 GMT -5
Alright, i was just reading the thread about WWS and WPP (thanks Awall) and I was thinking about What Slarty said about the fake potential in WPS rather than WPP. So here is my question...
I wonder if anyone tabulates the fake-out rate of top 1800 plus players, whether there is an argument to either ALWAYS fake out or NEVER fake out ( until the tendency was recognized.)
Psychologically, in a single game, a half dozen fakes makes the next one seem more likely...but then again, against a real human...does it?
I know against my battle with Exdeath recently (documented briefly on a thread here somewhere) he faked out of 3 PSD's, while only gesturing one PSDF. I kind of expected the last fake out...but was that just luck in my head?
So my question is...to fake or not to fake? Gut instinct? Mathematical probable factling? I have to admit, i have never used pen and paper or a white board since i was in 1600's, so i lack the processing power to solve this one.
What do you all think?
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Fakers
Jul 25, 2007 6:28:35 GMT -5
Post by maven on Jul 25, 2007 6:28:35 GMT -5
One of the most amazing things about this game is the amount of "mind games" involved. "Shadow Casting" (which I prefer to "faking") is often what sets the best players apart. I've discovered, at least for me, that it's a "gut" thing. The better I know a player (or the more a player thinks like me -- and that may be the real key), the better I am judging whether they will follow through or not.
For a long time, one of the top 3 warlocks had the hardest time against me, even though he easily defeated better players than I. A big reason for that was I seemed to guess better what he was going to do.
I'm more of a gut player, following the spell flow and what I think is going to happen. This has given me some spectacular wins, but I feel more often (against the top players anyway) it has handed me some nasty defeats. I believe, though I've never done any research on it, that I'm more likely to guess someone will fake when they actually follow through.
It would definitely be interesting to tabulate the fake-out rate of the top players, just for the statistics.
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Fakers
Jul 25, 2007 21:24:40 GMT -5
Post by Slartucker on Jul 25, 2007 21:24:40 GMT -5
It would definitely be interesting to tabulate the fake-out rate of the top players, just for the statistics. Interesting, but exceedingly difficult to get real results from. Different players, who favor slightly different offenses or defenses, are likely to encounter different fake-out chances. It might be interesting however to tabulate the fake-out rate of different players at particular junctures, even knowing this will be true -- DP, DFFD and PSD are the ones that come to mind immediately.
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Fakers
Jul 30, 2007 10:25:28 GMT -5
Post by Rycchus on Jul 30, 2007 10:25:28 GMT -5
There's also the risk thing - see two top-rank players in the situation where someone has an offensive spell and someone has a counter, and you'll mostly see the offence get dummied and the defence followed through.
It's different if it's something like amnesia which you can fit into your spellflow, but take a lightning bolt, it's not (usually) worth shadowcasting a counterspell.
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