Playing with Condorcet

[maknud]

The en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_method is a way of tallying votes like "A > B" to find a winner under certain intuitive criteria. It's more resistant to weird voting math than simple majority. I played with December's League matches to find out what kind of effect a fortuitous lineup had, using this online tool: condorcet.ericgorr.net/

First I made a ballot for each person by ranking their 5 games, e.g. Awall>Dubber>pseudo>Xade=Wastelin>Boomfrog since Awall scored 2, 3, 4, 4, and 5 points respectively vs his opponents. Click all of the checkboxes and then paste Appendix A into the ballot box to see the results of this ballot method. Awall, Succat, and Boomfrog win under various methods of resolving ties, which is needed since under standard Condorcet it's a tie between lots of people!

Then I made a different set of ballots (appendix B), giving one vote for A beating B for each point above -3 A got in his battle vs B. So e.g. the votes in favor of Awall were 8:awall>BoomFrog, 7:awall>wastelin, 5:awall>Dubber, 6:awall>pseudo, 7:awall>xade.

This had the amusing result of giving MikeEB victory across the board! I *think* because Awall just barely beat Dubber, while Dubber was beaten by Toyotami was strongly beaten by Igrek was strongly beaten by Vermont was beaten by 12 was strongly beaten by MikeEB.

And I'm pretty sure the reason MikeEB didn't show up in the first ballot method is that Vamplock beat Succat beat BioLogIn beat MikeEB. The first method has the effect of weighting a single point more highly than does the second method (but less than just summing your total points).

Using Appendix A ballots and successively removing winners, we get the following implied strength ranking: Awall > Succat > BioLogIn > MikeEB.

This concludes my session of playing with Condorcet.

Appendix A:

awall>Dubber>pseudo>xade=wastelin>BoomFrogBioLogIn>mikeEB>Maknud>12>Vamplock>saypin
Vamplock>succat>Wider>pseudo=igrek=BioLogIn
succat>BioLogIn>Wider=mikeEB=freesoul=Maknud
toyotami>12>Vermont>nawglan>igrek=Vamplock
awall>12>BoomFrog>Dubber>nawglan>wastelin
Vermont>succat>igrek>Maknud>toyotami>Vamplock
xade=BioLogIn>freesoul>saypin>pseudo
nawglan>toyotami>xade=Dubber>Vermont=nawglan
awall>toyotami>xade>saypin>nawglan=freesoul
mikeEB>12>Maknud=Dubber=BoomFrog=Vermont
BoomFrog>pseudo>awall>wastelin>Wider>saypin
BoomFrog>12=Maknud=awall=toyotami>Dubber
freesoul>succat=awall>Wider>pseudo>wastelin
mikeEB=BioLogIn=igrek>12>Maknud>Dubber
BoomFrog>toyotami=xade=Vermont>nawglan>saypin
wastelin=succat>BioLogIn>Vamplock>Wider>pseudo
igrek>Vermont=mikeEB>Wider>Vamplock>succat
wastelin>mikeEB>freesoul>xade=nawglan>saypin

Appendix B:

8:awall>BoomFrog
7:awall>wastelin
5:awall>Dubber
6:awall>pseudo
7:awall>xade
3:mikeEB>BioLogIn
6:mikeEB>Maknud
9:mikeEB>saypin
7:mikeEB>12
7:mikeEB>Vamplock
7:succat>Wider
3:succat>Vamplock
6:succat>pseudo
6:succat>igrek
6:succat>BioLogIn
6:BioLogIn>Wider
6:BioLogIn>mikeEB
6:BioLogIn>freesoul
6:BioLogIn>Maknud
3:BioLogIn>succat
7:Vermont>igrek
3:Vermont>toyotami
7:Vermont>Vamplock
6:Vermont>nawglan
4:Vermont>12
6:BoomFrog>Dubber
1:BoomFrog>awall
4:BoomFrog>12
8:BoomFrog>wastelin
7:BoomFrog>nawglan
8:igrek>Vamplock
2:igrek>Vermont
3:igrek>succat
7:igrek>toyotami
6:igrek>Maknud
6:freesoul>saypin
6:freesoul>BYE
3:freesoul>xade
3:freesoul>BioLogIn
7:freesoul>pseudo
6:toyotami>Vermont
6:toyotami>nawglan
2:toyotami>igrek
5:toyotami>xade
5:toyotami>Dubber
6:xade>nawglan
5:xade>saypin
4:xade>toyotami
6:xade>freesoul
2:xade>awall
5:12>Maknud
5:12>Dubber
2:12>mikeEB
5:12>BoomFrog
5:12>Vermont
2:wastelin>awall
2:wastelin>pseudo
1:wastelin>BoomFrog
7:wastelin>Wider
8:wastelin>saypin
4:Dubber>12
3:Dubber>BoomFrog
4:Dubber>Maknud
4:Dubber>awall
4:Dubber>toyotami
7:pseudo>wastelin
4:pseudo>Wider
3:pseudo>awall
3:pseudo>succat
2:pseudo>freesoul
3:Maknud>mikeEB
4:Maknud>12
3:Maknud>BioLogIn
5:Maknud>Dubber
3:Maknud>igrek
3:nawglan>toyotami
3:nawglan>xade
3:nawglan>Vermont
5:nawglan>saypin
2:nawglan>BoomFrog
5:Wider>pseudo
2:Wider>succat
2:Wider>wastelin
4:Wider>Vamplock
3:Wider>BioLogIn
6:Vamplock>succat
1:Vamplock>igrek
4:Vamplock>Wider
2:Vamplock>Vermont
2:Vamplock>mikeEB
4:saypin>xade
3:saypin>freesoul
4:saypin>nawglan
2:saypin>mikeEB
1:saypin>wastelin

[vermont]

Maknud, this is really interesting. Thanks for posting this!

[Dubber]

Brain hurts... stop the insanity!

[vermont]

I thought the insanity made your brain feel better...

[mikeEB]

I don't think either accounting method is entirely accurate; league scores don't really say much about actual performance. For example, in my game against Maknud, I won very quickly without landing any charms because he completely botched a FoD defense, while Saypin fended off a similar 50-50 situation early on and proceeded to fight back for another 40+ turns, giving me a chance to land all three charms. To say this is a vote for Maknud>Saypin is rather absurd.

[maknud]

Obviously they can't be completely accurate, they're using just a few data points. Similarly it would be silly to say "without doubt, Awall is better at Warlocks+CharmRule than anyone else". On the other hand if two people who had never played before were matched with you, and one fought on while the other P/P'd turn 1, the surrenderer played Warlocks+CharmRule vs Dubber and got 0 points better than the one who was virtually guaranteed to get -3 points. Warlocks? Nah. Warlocks+CharmRule? Definitely.

[xade]

Nah, I'm just gunna come out and say it.

Maknud>Saypin

[saypin]

Any other lulz?