scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Mar 20, 2010 3:54:04 GMT -5
Could you help me figure out what leaves in this tree are advantageous for whom? I'm reasonably confidant that the leaves highlighted in teal give PS a clear advantage. Attachments:
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Post by ourjake on Mar 20, 2010 12:13:00 GMT -5
i'm so confused...usually i just clap three or four times to make sure
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Post by salvor on Mar 20, 2010 12:18:23 GMT -5
If we are talking about that exact tree than obviously favourable for S/P are teal lines+top left line (FFF(s)/PSD) vs SWP/PSD as this line is almost(at least in most frequent) equivalent to openning FF/DD vs DPP/PSD which leaves F/D-player down.
FFF(op)/PSD vs SWP/PSD is nearly equal,with some initiative gone to F/P. FFF(slf)/PSD vs SWD/PSD also is close to equality(and closer that previous one line).
All other variants are favourable for F/P
However I shall admit thst correct tree must be a bit different. As you see SWF/PSD variant isn't as good as SWP/PSD-variant,so it must be crossed out. Also you should add two FFF/PSP variants.
And there are alternative 2-turns variants: FF/PP,FF/PD,SW/PP,SF/PS all of them are good enough to observe them.
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scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Mar 20, 2010 12:58:41 GMT -5
Ok thanks salvor. I've updated it with the information you've given me. . . . . = discernible advantage to SP - . . - = possible advantage to SP - . - . = neutral situation - - - - = possible advantage to FP solid = discernible advantage to SP no border = I don't know EDIT: That one solid line is supposed to be a no border "I don't know" FFF/PSD is a "heads it's a draw, tails you win" situation, so I'm going to eliminate it because it's not a situation FP would choose. Attachments:
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scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Mar 20, 2010 14:11:11 GMT -5
Updated! EDIT: The second possibility is disadvantageous to SP. The situation ends up like: PSDD- SWP>- Versus PSPFP FFFFF Attachments:
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Post by salvor on Mar 20, 2010 15:04:17 GMT -5
FFF/PSD is a "heads it's a draw, tails you win" situation, so I'm going to eliminate it because it's not a situation FP would choose. Be careful about that, yes, actually most FFF/PSD situations looks like "small advantage if F/P will call what S/P did, average disadvantage if not" we can't eliminate this turn,simply because the whole decision point FF/PS vs SW/PS favours S/P a bit. Now about tree, I'll usemy personal system of "position points=pp" , aproximately 1pp is equal to 1 hp difference. SWP vs FFF(op)/PSP F/P player gets antispell+charm in exchange of 4hp(heavy wounds+stab). Judge:5pp advantage for F/P SWP vs FFF(slf)/PSP Complicated situation,I think that a possibility of charming PSDF and dummies SWPP/PSDS SWPS/PSDP SWPW/PSDW SWPS/PSDS (last one is risky) leaves S/P with clear advantage typical position: FFFF PSPPP
SWPS(D/F) PSDPP
and forhcoming decisions are strictly favourable for S/P Judge:+3-4 pp S/P advantage SWP vs FFF(s)/PSD Judge:3pp SWP advantage, mainly same as in previous variant, but charm isn't a threat but DD is worse than PPP SWP vs FFF(o)/PSD S/P is on the defensive, but I don't see a way of improving initiative Judge:1-2pp for F/P SWP vs FFF(s)/PSF wide variety of possibilities for S/P SWPFD/PSDSF is completely safe but not so killing as others SWPS/PSDPP is very nice if F/P didn't summoned an ogre and SWPS/PSDD is actually a game over if he does. Judge:4pp for S/P SWP vs FFF(op)/PSF don't see any ways of improving initiative and S/P is 1hp up Judge:Equality SWD vs FFF(s)/PSP Complicated, 2pp for F/P, don't think that antispelling is right idea,but PSPS will give some initiative Judge:+2 for F/P SWD vs FFF(op)/PSP Judge:4pp for S/P as either SWDPP/PSDD or SWDD/PSDF will give S/P-player comfortable initiative SWD vs FFF(op)/PSD SWD(P/S) PSDD
FFFW PSDPP
Some bolt-throwing or goblin-summoning possibilities gives S/P advantage Judge:2pp for S/P SWD vs FFF(s)/PSD favours F/P a bit, but not so much +1 pp for F/P SWD vs FFF(op)/PSF forthcoming decision favors S/P, it is too dangerous to paralyse RH so F/P will likely be amnesia'd Judge:+3 for S/P SWD vs FFF(s)/PSF F/P gets an ogre(however likely F/P will be charmed) Judge:+4 for F/P
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scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Mar 20, 2010 15:32:55 GMT -5
Wait nm. I read wrong.
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scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Mar 20, 2010 15:48:52 GMT -5
Updated with the info you gave me. Certainly does look favorable to SP. I'd judge SWD vs FFF(op)/PSD as 3 or so points. How are FF/PP and FF/PD better off against SW/PS? Attachments:
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Post by salvor on Mar 20, 2010 18:18:03 GMT -5
FF/PP and FF/PD are good as theirs spellflow aren't hurted by self-paralysing, as an example old FF/PD vs S/P-analysis (made by me and bio, we forgot about it until now, actually) a) FF/PD vs SW/PS With fear at self: LH:FFFFF RH:PDWP LH:SWDPP RH:PSFW With fear at F/P player: LH:FFFFF RH:PDWP LH:SWDS RH:PSFW Basically okay here, with some initiative gone to D/P. b) FF/PD vs SF/PS. LH:FFFFF RH:PDWPS LH:SFWxx RH:PSDDW Removing goblin leaves FF/PD down 2 hp, but up some initiative. However, if S/P player is open to some risk, he may choose more aggressive route: LH:FFFFF RH:PDWPS LH:SFWPS RH:PSDDP Where he has some good options (but risks getting paraogre if F/P guesses a few targets right). c) Against SFW/PW: thanks to para S/P player can`t have a counterspell on 4th turn) LH:FFFFF RH:PDWPS LH:SFWP RH:PWPS Which slightly favors S/P player because of active flow and embedded missiles. SF/PS is nice as in FF/PP variant we'll have definite advantage(goblin+conter ready for PPS), it isn't bad vs FF/PS (goblin either dies on 3rd turn in exchange of 2hp or lives alive,what isn't bad as parachain is bad whil monster are in board). SW/PP is other good idea(as SWP/PPS is paralysis-friendly flow, and SWD is much more dead if it is succesful, paralyser can't block tight hand with PSDD and we've got guarantied charm), good guess on t3 vs FF/PS gives you an ogre , SWP/PPS vs FF/PS doen't hurt you. SW/PP alo is better vs FF/PS, the only it's disadvantage lies in parafod FF/PW, however even there we get 18% surviving chance while we'll get lot's of initiative if FoD fails. look here slarty.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=warlocks&action=display&thread=421&page=1 for some additional info about SW/PP Personally I play either SF/PS or SW/PP and very rarely SW/PS.
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Post by salvor on Mar 20, 2010 18:22:10 GMT -5
And if someone is interesting, the definition of pp(position points) is:
"If two warlocks has an exact spellflow and their hp is equal to x and y respectively (x<y) we say that second warlock has better position with advantage equal to 10(y-x)/x position points".
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scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Mar 20, 2010 20:01:28 GMT -5
You're comparing SF/PS and SF/PW against FF/PD
If they open FF/PS how do those alternatives give an advantage?
In particular, it seems that if you open SF/PS and they open FF/PS then on turn three they target missile at the monster that might be summoned, and on turn four they target para at the ogre. Now they have an ogre and the situation is:
SF?? PS?? Versus PSFW FFFF
Now SF/PW looks strong, because you have a goblin no matter what.
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Post by salvor on Mar 21, 2010 5:55:22 GMT -5
SF/PS isn't so simple, SFW PSDD vs FFF PSF Here on t4 S/P-player is 2hp up, and ogre isn't a threat as it can be killed easily by WFP, actually it can be killed by goblin, playing SFWWP/PSDDW.
and also SF/PW don't give you full-proof goblin. As FFF(op)/PSD will force uncounterable charm if S/P summoned a goblin. I took SF/PW into account only to show that there aren't rarely variants that punish FF/PD
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scwizard
Ronin Warlock
Lone Wol
Posts: 55
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Post by scwizard on Apr 8, 2010 11:54:12 GMT -5
SWPS/PSDD isn't game over at all. They just para the ogre to negate the charm.
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Post by salvor on Apr 8, 2010 12:45:23 GMT -5
SWPS/PSDD isn't game over at all. They just para the ogre to negate the charm. ehm, I assumed we are talking about paraFC(imho paraFF is too odd system, for example there FFF(s)/PSF is a full-proof ogre if opponent didn't switched for a counter), then if F/P-player targets himself and summons ogre he don't have a possibility of self-paralysing
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Post by Dubber on Apr 9, 2010 8:23:34 GMT -5
Just as an aside, all this mathematical genius is really harshing my buzz... I mean, I know there are some true artists in the ELO ranges above me - I play by the seat of my pants, generally selecting what looks like the second best move from experience - but the probability / algebraic wizardry used in this thread feels too formalized for a game
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