Final Scores for Round 1

[Dubber]

admin said:

I find it kind of intriguing that, while running this tournament, every tiny decision that I make -- as well as numerous random occurrences that aren't actual decisions -- are speculated upon, picked apart, and analyzed so much. I especially find it amusing when something I said in one context is referred to in a completely different context while more relevant statements are ignored.

Welcome to the wonderful world of capricious dictatorship. We all voluntarily accepted your terms for the Tourney and even the "passed over for the wildcard" players will accept the final decision. We didn't say we wouldn't heckle from the perimeter (that wasn't one of the terms of the Tourney) and we're all just being... um... "helpful..." yeah, helpful.

It's the long drawn-out decision process that makes us think we can influence the final outcome. A post-decision flamewar would have taken less time than this

[toyotami]

Well now...that was an interesting round...a few surprises...what does everybody think? Seeing Zuggy go out was a shock...even in the rounds he played i would have expected him to show enough to win an adjudicated decision. Personally my loss to Xade sparked a ELO freefall (75 points in less than a week). Personally, my bet to take the whole thing is leaning towards Spacca. I thought he would be rustier, but he is looking the goods.

So as a broad category discussion, who are people liking the looks of, (other than themselves)? If this was Vegas, what odds are you calling (Exdeath?)

Finally, if Zug was the biggest surprise bowing out...who was the biggest surprise...ah...bowing in?

[nawglan]

me. I'll claim the biggest surprise. 8)

As far as winner of the whole schebang... I'm gonna have to go with the pirate. Toyo as runner up.

And for the Trifecta...

CalicoJack, Toyotomi, Awall.

[vermont]

Biggest surprise?

Why, of course, that's ME! I'm such a surprise that no one even knows I'm in it yet! ;D

[Dubber]

Dratted earthy-crunchy state... out, out, ...ed vermont. Deny thy father, renounce thy name...
er... I'm mixing my literary references again, aren't I? Nevermind.

[Dubber]

Ooh, just noticed the d**n cussing filter is enabled... we need a thread to test the cuss filter

<edit> So I made the ... cussing filter testing thread slarty.proboards56.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1190320516 </edit>

[ExDeath]

toyotami said:

If this was Vegas, what odds are you calling (Exdeath?)

Finally, if Zug was the biggest surprise bowing out...who was the biggest surprise...ah...bowing in?

At 4-0 I would have to say Rasper is the biggest surprise. My handicap would be something like this (it adds up to around 150% to account for house vig):

Toyotami 5/2
Spacca 7/2
Xade 6/1
Spez 10/1
Dubber 10/1
Awall 14/1
Freesoul 14/1
Reds 20/1
CalicoJack 24/1
Rycchus 28/1
Maven 32/1
Rasper 42/1
Nawglan 45/1
Grep 65/1
Jes 65/1
Vermont 140/1
Derfel 190/1
Alaric 190/1
Morzas 300/1
Dni 380/1
Bzali 380/1

If you like the longshot, bet on a wild card spot that hasn't even been selected yet!!

[Dubber]

10/1 odds on me?!
I'll take that as a compliment.

D'you mind sharing how you developed those odds? I've occasionally wondered how the numbers work/get developed.

[ExDeath]

Eh, I didn't do a whole lot of work on it. I figured 16/1 is the average, and went from there..since it is single elimination and only 4 rounds, I think underdogs have a better chance to win, whereas if it was say, 12 rounds of swiss, there would be a much bigger divide between Toyo/Tchichi and the rest of the field.

Real oddsmakers base their lines on sentimental favorites and such, because they know a lot of action will pour in on the Yankees, Bears, Lakers, etc. no matter what the line is at. That's why it's generally a good idea to bet against these teams. But I just tried to come up with lines I thought were fair.

[spacca]

Calico Jack at 24/1. I'll have a tenner on him please.

[Slartucker]

I have to admit I find some of those odds surprising as well. Based on past performance, the players I think have the best shot at actually winning are Spacca, Toyo, Rycchus, and Awall, in some order. (I'm a bit hesitant to say this lest it should make people think I am going to be biased; but everyone has opinions whether they state them or not, and I may as well be open about mine.) Rycchus is atrociously undervalued on your charts.

Also keep in mind that while it is single elim 4 rounds, it is best two out of three in each round. The list of warlocks who can sometimes beat, say, Spacca -- to take an example of a rock solid, consistent player -- is much longer than the list of warlocks who are remotely likely to beat him twice out of three games.

[xade]

toyotami said:

Personally my loss to Xade sparked a ELO freefall (75 points in less than a week).

heh... looks like you need another one of those classic xade double deaths to perk you up a little...



Oh, and I'm loving the fact that I'm rated 6/1, even though I'm prolly the most inconsistant person on the list...

[laxen]

i agree with exdeath, rycchus is far underrated, but apart from that a pretty good odds chart (or whatever its called ) the 1 thing that i think is vital tho in this kind of thing is that some players, in a big event such as a tourney, think much more about every go (such as rycchus) and so do better in events like these. when will next round and wildcard spots be up?
Laxen

[freesoul]

I don't know about anyone else... but i'm eager for round two.... my matches we're over for about a week now...

[Dubber]

I'm eager for Round 2, too. I'll be offline most of the weekend, though.
I see ol' Slartucker is online now, so maybe we can start before I head off to the hinterlands of Connecticut for ... a Viking Party! (complete with longboat, shields, swords, and barley-based beverages)