SW/PW vs D/P analysis, or S/P wipe the floor pt. 2

[salvor]

You may reread the updated article.

I advised playing PWSF/DWSS if you see a shield or missile on first turn of invi and PWSD/DWSS if you don't. Just because there exist a very nice counterplay to para-delay:gobli+counter. But it is easily broken by maladelay and maladelay still is good vs all delay lines. Para is better against most, but that gob punishes it. Not much, but punishes. Still I reccomend playing it in real games, as goblin is risky.

However here we analyse mostly safe variants and safe variant is maladelay if you don't see a missile or shield and para-delay if you see it.

[salvor]

Nope, on the turn on permanence, he can cast banked charm monster on himself, and counterspell on his opponent.

I've missed this,yeah.

Yes, it is close to even with some initiative to S/P provided by paraflow.

And don't forget tha remouve isn't "safe" for D/P

SWDDWSSSPS
PWPPWSFFF

DPPWSDPDWP
PSDWSSSPSDD
forces an ogre for S/P.

mala-delay still gives initiative for S/P

SWDDWSSSPSFW
PWPPWSDSFFF

DPPWSFPDWPD
PSDWSSSPSD

[scwizard]

Hasting and being feared and amnesiad consequently?Even the hasted paraFoD isn't too dangerous here, as D/Ps flow will be disrupted (if not by fear than by charm)

If SP casts fear on DP, then DP can go for hasted FoD. If SP casts charm monster on the ogre, then he will die. If SP casts charm person on DP, then DP still has an ogre.

[salvor]

There is two consequent charms there. So S/P can charm ogre AND D/P-player if he moves to haste.

And hasted parafod isn't a win. It is a 33% win if D/P player isn't charmed and 20% if it is. And it is impossible if D/P is feared

[scwizard]

He can't charm DP, charm the ogre and fear DP. Now lets take fear followed by charm monster.

SWDDWSSSPPSWD _ _ ___
PWPPWSDSWDPSD D _ ___
&
DPPWSCPSFWPPCWW
PSDWSCDPWPWWCPWPFSSSD
Fill in the blanks with a way SP could possibly survive.

EDIT: Yeah remove is bad. They can just get an ogre in response to seeing the W/S

EDIT: Never mind, I see how SP would survive, now to calculate the chances.
And then I went and found a way DP can kill SP for certain.

[scwizard]

Here are all the possibilities I can think of:
123456789
DPPWSFPSF
PSDWSSSPD
&
SWDDWSSSP
PWPPWSDSF

123456789
DPPWSSPFP
PSDWSSSPD
&
SWDDWSSSP
PWPPWSDSF

123456789
DPPWS-SWD
PSDWSSSPF
&
SWDDWSSSP
PWPPWSDSF

123456789
DPPWS-WWS
PSDWSSSPF
&
SWDDWSSSP
PWPPWSDSF
Do you really think all these scenarios are SP's advantage?

Then there's the clapping case.
12345678
DPPWSCPS
PSDWSCDP
&
SWDDWSSS
PWPPWSDS
You're saying this is SP's advantage as well?

The fact is, it's very hard to demonstrate that this is the case. If we try and argue back and forth who has the advantage in each situation, we'll be here forever. I'm going to do some more analysis and see if I can prove that one of these situations yields a certain advantage. What's most likely though, is that this case will remain up in the air.

[salvor]

SWDDWSSSPPSDD
PWPPWSDSWDPSWD

Why not this one? instead of fear+charm it is better to throw charm+fear.

PWPPWSDSF
Do you really think all these scenarios are SP's advantage?

Yes)))))
Short answers to each case:

DPPWS-WWS
PSDWSSSPF
was analysed in the article.

SWDDWSSSP
PWPPWSDSF
mala doesn't have a target.

DPPWSFPSF
PSDWSSSPD

banked anti is much better than troll.

DPPWSSPFP
PSDWSSSPD
less strong than SSSPS variant.

Clapping case is the best case for D/P, IMHO and maybe the full analysis of it's case isn't too simple. But I've already wrote some S/P lines, recheck them if you want to write full analysis.

[scwizard]

Yeah you're right I think. Lets reduce it to this.
DPPWSSPFP
PSDWSSSPS

DPPWSFPSF
PSDWSSSPD

DPPWSCDW
DPPWSCPS
The first one you people have already gone over. The second isn't just banked anti against troll. It's banked anti against troll and banked remove enchantment. I don't know enough to analyze this case, but I'd be interested in seeing how that situation would pan out in practice.

When I get home I'll analyize the clapping case a bit more and post the results.

mala doesn't have a target.

You confused the SP weave with the DP weave lol

[scwizard]

What about this sort of situation:
1234567
DPPWSSF
PSDWSSS
&
SWDDWSS
PWPPWSD

The situation DP is aiming for is:
1234567890
DPPWSSFFFF
PSDWSSSPFP
Bank:Paralysis
&
SWDDWSSSP-
PWPPWSDSF-
Goblin

[salvor]

You confused the SP weave with the DP weave lol

Yeah =)

DPPWSFPSFWW
PSDWSSSPDWP

SWDDWSSSPFPSD
PWPPWSDSFWWPS

Which favors S/P player much. Banked remouve isn't useful at all.

The situation DP is aiming for is:
1234567890
DPPWSSFFFF
PSDWSSSPFP
Bank:Paralysis
&
SWDDWSSSP-
PWPPWSDSF-
Goblin

D/P-player has succesfully self-paralysed?It is very risky, as S/P can play SSSP/SDSW.


Actually don't forget that we are examining "safe" S/P variants. And even there we were able to find safe answer to all possible D/P attacks. But these D/P atacks aren't "safe"! For example if S/P-player call that D/P is playing dispell line he can switch to FoD and easily kill D/P-player.

[scwizard]

I don't understand, how this is unsafe.
1234567890
DPPWSCDWPP
PSDWSCPSFW

SWDDWS???P
PWPPWSPWPF
DP can go invisible, and you can't FoD what you can't see. What gestures for turns 7 8 9 10 left hand of SP gives you a 100% FoD attack?

And if you take into account the fact that DP can use a completely different weave if he sees shield on turn 7, it becomes even safer.

[salvor]

amnesia-fod,or parafod
PWPFSSSD
XXXDPPWPP

And if you take into account the fact that DP can use a completely different weave if he sees shield on turn 7, it becomes even safer.

Actually in variant you've just described D?P-player acted immediatly as he saw P-shield.

I didn't meen that it is a 100% FoD, maybe a 50% of fod with a full-proof fireball option.

[scwizard]

This is as good a defense as any other against a FoD attack.
12345678901
DPPWSCDSFFF
PSDWSCPSDF

ParaFoD can break it, but not with very good chances. Other FoD attacks lose against it.

[salvor]

But it is bad according to line(and other dispell lines also are bad because of this line)
SPFPS
SSPFP

[scwizard]

This line is FoD proof, and isn't weak against that line:
12345678901234
DPPWSCDPW
PSDWSCPSDFFF
There's no way they can block both the enchantments, and stop you from clapping out of FoD without para chaining.

With para chaining, it's a 25% paraFoD attack.

Against the double anti weave, it's the even situation of anti versus charm.